Imagine a glacier the size of Florida, holding the power to raise global sea levels by 2 feet if it were to vanish. That’s Thwaites Glacier, often dubbed the ‘Doomsday Glacier’ by the media—a nickname scientists find both dramatic and misleading. But here’s where it gets controversial: Is this massive ice giant truly on the brink of collapse, or is there still hope to save it? Let’s dive in.
The current Antarctic expedition aboard the icebreaker Araon aims to study Thwaites and its surrounding seas to predict how soon—or if—this glacier might meet its fate. While its complete melt would be catastrophic, scientists stress that it’s not an inevitable doom. By slashing carbon emissions driving climate change, we could still shield Thwaites from oblivion. And this is the part most people miss: The glacier’s future isn’t just about melting ice—it’s about the choices we make today.
However, the reality is grim. Global fossil fuel emissions hit record highs in 2025, showing no signs of slowing. One study suggests it might already be too late to prevent some degree of melting in this part of Antarctica. Other researchers argue that while Thwaites is unlikely to collapse entirely in the next few decades, its unraveling could begin in the latter half of the century—or sooner, depending on our actions.
To grasp this, let’s break down Thwaites’ unique structure. Like all glaciers, it’s made of solid ice, but it flows like a thick, slow liquid (think honey or molasses) as gravity pulls it toward the sea. What makes Thwaites special—and vulnerable—is its shape. Its ice extends so far into the ocean that its edge floats on the water, forming a massive ice tongue. Warm ocean currents are now attacking this floating ice from below, thinning it and eroding the glacier’s base, which sits on bedrock. This erosion pushes the glacier’s grounding line—the point where ice meets land—farther inland, setting the stage for a potentially unstoppable cycle.
Here’s the kicker: The bedrock beneath Thwaites slopes downward inland, meaning the more the grounding line retreats, the more warm seawater can rush in, accelerating melting. This self-reinforcing loop—retreat, melt, repeat—could destabilize the glacier irreversibly, sending vast chunks of ice into the ocean. As glaciologist Hilmar Gudmundsson warns, ‘The consequences of this unstable retreat will be felt worldwide in sharply increased sea-level rise.’
A 2023 study by Gudmundsson and colleagues suggests Thwaites hasn’t entered this cycle yet, but computer simulations paint a sobering picture: if the grounding line retreats too far, collapse becomes almost certain. ‘We’ve gone from ‘maybe’ to ‘almost certainly,’’ Gudmundsson notes, though predicting exactly when remains a challenge.
Not all news is dire, though. A 2024 study downplays another doomsday scenario: the runaway collapse of Thwaites’ towering ice cliffs. While these cliffs are inherently unstable, the research suggests this particular fate is less likely—though some scientists argue more study is needed.
But here’s the real question: Are we focusing too much on dramatic collapse scenarios while ignoring the incremental changes already reshaping our planet? As glaciologist Doug Benn points out, slow but steady sea-level rise from Antarctic ice melt is just as urgent for low-lying nations and ecosystems. ‘Authorities aren’t planning for the next century—they’re planning for the next few decades,’ he says. ‘That’s where our focus must be.’
So, is Thwaites still the ‘Doomsday Glacier’? Perhaps not in the apocalyptic sense the name implies, but its fate remains deeply tied to ours. What do you think? Are we doing enough to protect Thwaites—and ourselves—or is it already too late? Let’s discuss in the comments.
